Retirement Planning

Retirement Planning in a Bumpy Market

Retirement Planning in a Bumpy Market

Retirement Planning in a Bumpy Market

Zoe Team

6 min read

A financial advisor reviewing a plan with two clients at a table

Key Takeaways

Key Takeaways

  • Market volatility is an inherent part of investing, similar to the thrill and unpredictability of a rollercoaster.

  • Focus on long-term goals rather than short-term market swings to avoid panic-driven decisions during bumpy periods.

  • Maintaining a disciplined strategy and clear plan helps navigate stress when markets become turbulent.

Frequently Asked Questions

Frequently Asked Questions

How should I view market volatility?

Think of volatility as a necessary part of the investment journey, similar to the dips on a rollercoaster.

Is retirement planning stressful in a downturn?

It can be, but staying focused on your long-term plan rather than daily market movements can reduce anxiety.

What is the best way to handle a bumpy market?

Maintain your investment discipline and trust your long-term retirement strategy instead of trying to time the market.

Nowadays we live in a fast changing and very volatile market. Retirement planning in a bumpy market can be difficult and stressful! Think of it as riding a rollercoaster: While the thrill we feel from a roller coaster never changes, it seems the older we get, the more cautious we become. Is this high, hilly and loopy structure made of metal and wood safe? When was the last time the ride was inspected and tested for safety? Have there been any accidents or injuries related to riding this roller coaster?

Roller Coasters Safety

The International Association of Amusement Parks and Attractions (IAAPA) has substantial research to calm those fears, in fact, roller coaster deaths are extremely rare. The 2017 Ride Safety Report surveyed U.S. and Canadian amusement facilities in fixed sites, and found less than 1 injury per million rides in 2017. Following posted instructions, like keeping hands and feet inside the ride, avoiding restricted areas, and good old common sense can help ease the nerves; unfortunately, the circumstances beyond our control might still make a ride unsafe.

The Financial Markets Roller Coaster …

If you’ve been following the financial markets over the past few weeks, you might have that same queasy roller coaster feeling. The market’s recent up-and-down-swings and news out of Washington, China and Europe have caused lots of looming recession speculation. Uncertainty in the market often causes individuals to make drastic moves with their investment portfolios, with potentially devastating consequences—especially if close to or in retirement.

Controlling What You Can

When it comes to managing your retirement portfolio in uncertain times, the best advice is to control what you can control. There are so many aspects of retirement planning over which individuals have no control, like changes in the inflation rate, tax rate changes, the future of Social Security and-you guessed it- market performance. However, there are several ways individuals can manage their retirement plan, even in an uncertain market.

Think about those aspects that you can control:

  • How much you save,

  • How spending may change,

  • Staying invested—to help you focus on the right way to manage your portfolio.

Savings is Up, but Not High Enough

Although the US personal saving rate, at a little over 8%, is the highest it’s been since 2013, consider that the saving rate was above 10% prior to the mid-‘80’s. One reason for this is that many people ‘save’ by investing excess cash in stocks and bonds and stocking away income in 401(k) plans rather than in low-yielding savings accounts. Consider also that during times of expansion, individuals may feel more comfortable spending more or taking on more debt, which could lead to difficult consequences if the economy shifts unexpectedly.

Rule of Thumb= 15%

Many financial companies have studied the appropriate savings rate and have determined that to be on track for retirement, an individual should save about 15% of their pre-tax income a year. Although that savings rate is predicated on starting to save at a young age. Those who don’t begin saving until later may have to save an even higher percentage. So while the American consumer may be saving at a higher rate than in recent years, it is still not high enough to ensure an equivalent lifestyle in retirement.

One way to continue to maximize savings is by saving pre-tax income in your company’s 401(k). Many employers will match employee contributions, usually up to 5-6%, so it’s wise to maximize the match. But saving is half the battle; make sure that you’re investing your savings in a target date fund, or managed account if you are age 50+. These accounts may provide the diversification you need according to your current age and projected retirement age, and make risk-adjusted changes over time. If you are age 50 and over, make sure to take advantage of catch-up savings in your IRA and employer plans.

Retirement Confidence < Calculating Retirement

Retirement confidence is good, but calculating retirement is great. While 2/3 of workers report that they are saving for retirement and feel confident in their retirement preparedness, only about 4 in 10 have actually calculated how much they will need for retirement (2019 EBRI Retirement Confidence Survey). Determining how much is actually needed to live comfortably in retirement is key to understanding if you are saving enough- as well as how to anticipate future spending, and figuring out the appropriate replacement rate for retirement.

The rule of thumb for the approximate percentage of your pre-retirement income will be needed to sustain your lifestyle in retirement—AKA your “replacement rate”—is 80%. In other words, considering your current lifestyle and expectations, you will probably spend about 80% of what you’re already spending in retirement. Recent studies have challenged the 80% rule and have determined that for some individuals, the replacement rate may be as low as 70% or lower. That’s because certain expenditures drop off at retirement; payroll taxes may disappear, income tax rates may go down, certain spending on transportation, apparel, insurance and other spending may also go down.

The Retirement Spending Smile

On the other hand, some expenses like health care and long term care may increase—perhaps not immediately but they will likely surpass other spending as your retirement years continue. Overall, this pattern of spending in retirement could result in what some experts call “the spending smile.” This visual illustrates how spending early in retirement could begin at a high level—as individuals leave work, travel and spend on entertainment and housing--and then as an individual slows down, spending begins to decrease until later in retirement when the cost of healthcare and long term care increases and causes overall spending to go up again.

Staying In It to Win It

Even in a choppy or uncertain market, the fundamentals of investing are especially important. When individuals save for retirement based on a sound and comprehensive financial plan the risk of reactionary impulses based on fear is diminished and contributes to post-retirement well being.. This helps individuals to stay invested in the market for the long term, even when the market bounces.

Working with a financial advisor, especially when you are saving and investing outside of IRAs and employer plans is also key; an advisor can help ensure that you’re invested in the appropriate investment strategies according to your short-and long-term goals and risk tolerance. Most important an advisor can help you avoid knee-jerk reactions based on fear caused by the day-to-day market movements. Consider the below JP Morgan chart that details what happens when an investor stays invested in the market over the long term versus an investor who gets out of the market during times of uncertainty. Note that most market rebounds occur within 90 days of a market bottom; the investor who is motivated by fear and gets out could see his returns reduced by more than half.

Overcome a Queasy Stomach

Like roller coasters, the financial markets can be scary and leave an investor with a queasy stomach. The key to managing these times of volatility is to focus on what you can control by maximizing saving including continuing to make contributions to your employer plan, calculating your projected expenses in retirement, understanding how spending may fluctuate and saving towards those goals, working with a financial advisor and staying invested. This may not guarantee a smooth ride, but it can get you closer to the lifestyle you desire in retirement.

Nowadays we live in a fast changing and very volatile market. Retirement planning in a bumpy market can be difficult and stressful! Think of it as riding a rollercoaster: While the thrill we feel from a roller coaster never changes, it seems the older we get, the more cautious we become. Is this high, hilly and loopy structure made of metal and wood safe? When was the last time the ride was inspected and tested for safety? Have there been any accidents or injuries related to riding this roller coaster?

Roller Coasters Safety

The International Association of Amusement Parks and Attractions (IAAPA) has substantial research to calm those fears, in fact, roller coaster deaths are extremely rare. The 2017 Ride Safety Report surveyed U.S. and Canadian amusement facilities in fixed sites, and found less than 1 injury per million rides in 2017. Following posted instructions, like keeping hands and feet inside the ride, avoiding restricted areas, and good old common sense can help ease the nerves; unfortunately, the circumstances beyond our control might still make a ride unsafe.

The Financial Markets Roller Coaster …

If you’ve been following the financial markets over the past few weeks, you might have that same queasy roller coaster feeling. The market’s recent up-and-down-swings and news out of Washington, China and Europe have caused lots of looming recession speculation. Uncertainty in the market often causes individuals to make drastic moves with their investment portfolios, with potentially devastating consequences—especially if close to or in retirement.

Controlling What You Can

When it comes to managing your retirement portfolio in uncertain times, the best advice is to control what you can control. There are so many aspects of retirement planning over which individuals have no control, like changes in the inflation rate, tax rate changes, the future of Social Security and-you guessed it- market performance. However, there are several ways individuals can manage their retirement plan, even in an uncertain market.

Think about those aspects that you can control:

  • How much you save,

  • How spending may change,

  • Staying invested—to help you focus on the right way to manage your portfolio.

Savings is Up, but Not High Enough

Although the US personal saving rate, at a little over 8%, is the highest it’s been since 2013, consider that the saving rate was above 10% prior to the mid-‘80’s. One reason for this is that many people ‘save’ by investing excess cash in stocks and bonds and stocking away income in 401(k) plans rather than in low-yielding savings accounts. Consider also that during times of expansion, individuals may feel more comfortable spending more or taking on more debt, which could lead to difficult consequences if the economy shifts unexpectedly.

Rule of Thumb= 15%

Many financial companies have studied the appropriate savings rate and have determined that to be on track for retirement, an individual should save about 15% of their pre-tax income a year. Although that savings rate is predicated on starting to save at a young age. Those who don’t begin saving until later may have to save an even higher percentage. So while the American consumer may be saving at a higher rate than in recent years, it is still not high enough to ensure an equivalent lifestyle in retirement.

One way to continue to maximize savings is by saving pre-tax income in your company’s 401(k). Many employers will match employee contributions, usually up to 5-6%, so it’s wise to maximize the match. But saving is half the battle; make sure that you’re investing your savings in a target date fund, or managed account if you are age 50+. These accounts may provide the diversification you need according to your current age and projected retirement age, and make risk-adjusted changes over time. If you are age 50 and over, make sure to take advantage of catch-up savings in your IRA and employer plans.

Retirement Confidence < Calculating Retirement

Retirement confidence is good, but calculating retirement is great. While 2/3 of workers report that they are saving for retirement and feel confident in their retirement preparedness, only about 4 in 10 have actually calculated how much they will need for retirement (2019 EBRI Retirement Confidence Survey). Determining how much is actually needed to live comfortably in retirement is key to understanding if you are saving enough- as well as how to anticipate future spending, and figuring out the appropriate replacement rate for retirement.

The rule of thumb for the approximate percentage of your pre-retirement income will be needed to sustain your lifestyle in retirement—AKA your “replacement rate”—is 80%. In other words, considering your current lifestyle and expectations, you will probably spend about 80% of what you’re already spending in retirement. Recent studies have challenged the 80% rule and have determined that for some individuals, the replacement rate may be as low as 70% or lower. That’s because certain expenditures drop off at retirement; payroll taxes may disappear, income tax rates may go down, certain spending on transportation, apparel, insurance and other spending may also go down.

The Retirement Spending Smile

On the other hand, some expenses like health care and long term care may increase—perhaps not immediately but they will likely surpass other spending as your retirement years continue. Overall, this pattern of spending in retirement could result in what some experts call “the spending smile.” This visual illustrates how spending early in retirement could begin at a high level—as individuals leave work, travel and spend on entertainment and housing--and then as an individual slows down, spending begins to decrease until later in retirement when the cost of healthcare and long term care increases and causes overall spending to go up again.

Staying In It to Win It

Even in a choppy or uncertain market, the fundamentals of investing are especially important. When individuals save for retirement based on a sound and comprehensive financial plan the risk of reactionary impulses based on fear is diminished and contributes to post-retirement well being.. This helps individuals to stay invested in the market for the long term, even when the market bounces.

Working with a financial advisor, especially when you are saving and investing outside of IRAs and employer plans is also key; an advisor can help ensure that you’re invested in the appropriate investment strategies according to your short-and long-term goals and risk tolerance. Most important an advisor can help you avoid knee-jerk reactions based on fear caused by the day-to-day market movements. Consider the below JP Morgan chart that details what happens when an investor stays invested in the market over the long term versus an investor who gets out of the market during times of uncertainty. Note that most market rebounds occur within 90 days of a market bottom; the investor who is motivated by fear and gets out could see his returns reduced by more than half.

Overcome a Queasy Stomach

Like roller coasters, the financial markets can be scary and leave an investor with a queasy stomach. The key to managing these times of volatility is to focus on what you can control by maximizing saving including continuing to make contributions to your employer plan, calculating your projected expenses in retirement, understanding how spending may fluctuate and saving towards those goals, working with a financial advisor and staying invested. This may not guarantee a smooth ride, but it can get you closer to the lifestyle you desire in retirement.

Disclosures: Zoe Financial, Inc. ("Zoe Financial") is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Zoe Financial provides investment advisory services and access to independent registered investment advisers through its platform. The information provided by Zoe Financial is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as personalized investment advice or as an offer to buy or sell any security. All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Clients should consult with their own financial, tax, or legal professionals before making any investment decisions. The material presented by Zoe Financial is for informational purposes only and is not intended to serve as a substitute for personalized investment advice or as a recommendation or solicitation of any particular security, strategy, or investment product. Material presented has been gathered from sources believed to be reliable, however Adviser cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of such information, and certain information presented here may have been condensed or summarized from its original source. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Zoe Financial does not provide legal or tax advice, and nothing contained in these materials should be taken as legal or tax advice. SEC Registration does not constitute an endorsement of Zoe Financial by the SEC nor does it indicate that Zoe Financial has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The sole purpose of this material is to inform, and it in no way is intended to be an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any security, other investment or service, or to attract any funds or deposits. Investments mentioned may not be appropriate for all clients. Before making any investment, each investor should carefully consider the risks associated with the investment, as discussed in the applicable offering memorandum, and make a determination based upon their own particular circumstances, that the investment is consistent with their investment objectives and risk tolerance. Lower expenses do not guarantee better investment performance. Certain information contained herein may constitute forward-looking statements. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events, results or the performance of a fund may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements.

Disclosure: This page is not investment advice and should not be relied on for such advice or as a substitute for consultation with professional accounting, tax, legal or financial advisors. The observations of industry trends should not be read as recommendations for stocks or sectors.


Investment advisory services are provided by Zoe Financial, Inc. (Zoe Financial), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Learn more about Zoe Financial on the SEC’s Investment Adviser Public Disclosure website. Brokerage services are provided by Zoe Securities LLC and Apex Clearing Corporation, members of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority Inc. (FINRA) and Securities Investor Protection Corporation (SIPC). Learn more about Zoe Securities and Apex on FINRA’s BrokerCheck website.

The information in the visuals above is for illustrative purposes only and does not represent an actual user's account, balance, or return. Zoe Financial does not provide tax or legal advice.

Explore the Zoe Wealth Platform with AI

Some of this content may have been generated with the assistance of AI. Please review and sense-check all outputs, as AI tools can occasionally produce incomplete or inaccurate information.
In certain situations, you may be required to disclose that the content was “generated by AI.” Please confirm any specific disclosure or labelling requirements with Compliance.

(646) 680-9244

support@zoefin.com

666 Third Ave, 6th Floor
New York, NY, 10017

Copyright © 2026 Zoe Financial, Inc. | All rights reserved

Disclosure: This page is not investment advice and should not be relied on for such advice or as a substitute for consultation with professional accounting, tax, legal or financial advisors. The observations of industry trends should not be read as recommendations for stocks or sectors.


Investment advisory services are provided by Zoe Financial, Inc. (Zoe Financial), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Learn more about Zoe Financial on the SEC’s Investment Adviser Public Disclosure website. Brokerage services are provided by Zoe Securities LLC and Apex Clearing Corporation, members of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority Inc. (FINRA) and Securities Investor Protection Corporation (SIPC). Learn more about Zoe Securities and Apex on FINRA’s BrokerCheck website.

The information in the visuals above is for illustrative purposes only and does not represent an actual user's account, balance, or return. Zoe Financial does not provide tax or legal advice.

Explore the Zoe Wealth Platform with AI

Some of this content may have been generated with the assistance of AI. Please review and sense-check all outputs, as AI tools can occasionally produce incomplete or inaccurate information.
In certain situations, you may be required to disclose that the content was “generated by AI.” Please confirm any specific disclosure or labelling requirements with Compliance.

(646) 680-9244

support@zoefin.com

666 Third Ave, 6th Floor
New York, NY, 10017

Copyright © 2026 Zoe Financial, Inc. | All rights reserved

Disclosure: This page is not investment advice and should not be relied on for such advice or as a substitute for consultation with professional accounting, tax, legal or financial advisors. The observations of industry trends should not be read as recommendations for stocks or sectors.


Investment advisory services are provided by Zoe Financial, Inc. (Zoe Financial), an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Learn more about Zoe Financial on the SEC’s Investment Adviser Public Disclosure website. Brokerage services are provided by Zoe Securities LLC and Apex Clearing Corporation, members of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority Inc. (FINRA) and Securities Investor Protection Corporation (SIPC). Learn more about Zoe Securities and Apex on FINRA’s BrokerCheck website.

The information in the visuals above is for illustrative purposes only and does not represent an actual user's account, balance, or return. Zoe Financial does not provide tax or legal advice.

Explore the Zoe Wealth Platform with AI

Some of this content may have been generated with the assistance of AI. Please review and sense-check all outputs, as AI tools can occasionally produce incomplete or inaccurate information.
In certain situations, you may be required to disclose that the content was “generated by AI.” Please confirm any specific disclosure or labelling requirements with Compliance.

(646) 680-9244

support@zoefin.com

666 Third Ave, 6th Floor
New York, NY, 10017

Copyright © 2025 Zoe Financial, Inc. | All rights reserved