Panic buying is driven by irrational fear rather than actual scarcity.
The U.S. produces over 90% of its toilet paper domestically.
Supply chains remain functional even during severe lockdowns.
Investing
Zoe Team
3 min read
Why are people stockpiling toilet paper?
It is largely due to irrational anxiety regarding store closures or future scarcity, rather than an actual increase in medical necessity.
Will we actually run out of toilet paper?
No. Production is steady and supply chains remain operational, ensuring that local store shelves will continue to be restocked.
How much toilet paper does the average American use?
The average American consumes approximately 141 rolls per year, using about 57 sheets per day based on typical bathroom usage.
Name something you never expected to be dominating the entirety of our media! We’d bet there are quite a few odd items on the list, but the oddest by far is toilet paper. For many, it’s puzzling to find that vast quantities of toilet paper are being stockpiled across the world, as concern over COVID-19 grows and more people are confined to their homes.
Images of empty toilet paper shelves and shoppers with carts brimming with rolls have quickly taken over the news and social media networks. While we’ve read plenty of reports on the psychological reasoning behind the TP panic that has swept over the United States, there’s little out there on the numbers around the toilet paper craze and what might happen next.
Could it really be possible that we need that much toilet paper?
According to Statista’s Consumer Market Outlook (2018) the U.S. leads the world in toilet paper consumption, with the typical American getting through 141 rolls per year.
To dig a little deeper: on average, a traditional 2-ply roll of toilet paper lasts approximately five days per person. Of course, that depends on your bathroom usage, but consumers use approximately 9 sheets of paper per toilet use and end up using nearly 57 sheets of toilet paper per day! Note that this calculation assumes you’re a typical American using the restroom around 6 times a day.
As there is little data on the most bought toilet paper pack size, we’re going to base our consumption and duration calculations on a 12-pack of 2-ply toilet paper. Assuming it takes the average American five days to get through one roll, in a month they would have only used half of the traditional twelve pack! For a family of four, for example, the average role would last about a day and a quarter, so the family’s twelve pack would last at least two weeks.
Will we actually run out?
No, for two reasons. Toilet paper will continue being produced and it is highly unlikely grocery stores will close. The impulse to overbuy comes from the concern that the store will be closed or there won’t be enough, both of which are largely irrational.
Toilet paper supply chains are so constant that major manufacturers have fine-tuned demand relative to suppl y. As there is nearly never a spike in toilet paper demand, factories efficiently produce the quantity needed to meet consumer’s purchases. Unlike other currently high-demand products such as face masks or hand sanitizer, it would be highly unusual to see a spike in need. Particularly considering COVID-19 has very few incidences of gastrointestinal distress as a symptom.
According to the Los Angeles Times, other countries with severe outbreaks of COVID-19 have not seen severe grocery store shutdowns nor a disablement of logistics and paper industries. Both Italy and parts of China experienced full shutdown, yet essential products were still produced by factories.
Relief for Non-Hoarders
Over 90% of the toilet paper used in the US is produced domestically and that ease of production means your local grocery store shelves will be stocked in no-time! Daniel Stanton, a supply chain expert and author of Supply Chain Management for Dummies, told CNBC, “All the grocery stores are going to have pallets of toilet paper sitting in the aisles, and nobody is going to buy it, because who needs to buy toilet paper when you’ve got a year’s worth sitting in your garage?” So, if you’re someone who is now stuck rationing toilet paper because you didn’t make it to the store in time, worry not!
Disclosures: Zoe Financial, Inc. ("Zoe Financial") is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Zoe Financial provides investment advisory services and access to independent registered investment advisers through its platform. The information provided by Zoe Financial is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as personalized investment advice or as an offer to buy or sell any security. All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Clients should consult with their own financial, tax, or legal professionals before making any investment decisions. The material presented by Zoe Financial is for informational purposes only and is not intended to serve as a substitute for personalized investment advice or as a recommendation or solicitation of any particular security, strategy, or investment product. Material presented has been gathered from sources believed to be reliable, however Adviser cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of such information, and certain information presented here may have been condensed or summarized from its original source. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Zoe Financial does not provide legal or tax advice, and nothing contained in these materials should be taken as legal or tax advice. SEC Registration does not constitute an endorsement of Zoe Financial by the SEC nor does it indicate that Zoe Financial has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The sole purpose of this material is to inform, and it in no way is intended to be an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any security, other investment or service, or to attract any funds or deposits. Investments mentioned may not be appropriate for all clients. Before making any investment, each investor should carefully consider the risks associated with the investment, as discussed in the applicable offering memorandum, and make a determination based upon their own particular circumstances, that the investment is consistent with their investment objectives and risk tolerance. Lower expenses do not guarantee better investment performance. Certain information contained herein may constitute forward-looking statements. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events, results or the performance of a fund may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements.
